Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Marlins LAD @ MIA

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

90-57  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Sep 11 • 7:10 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

72-76  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Blake Snell
STARTING PITCHER

Blake Snell

#7 | Starting Pitcher
@
Ryan Gusto
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Gusto

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Blake Snell 3-1 1.97 1.09 32.0 43
Ryan Gusto 1-4 4.23 1.41 72.1 62
3-1 W-L 1-4
1.97 Ldr ERA 4.23
1.09 Ldr WHIP 1.41
32.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 72.1
43 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 62
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
60%
📊
MARLINS
40%
▲ Edge: +3.40% (MIA)
DODGERS 68% Book Odds: -209
MARLINS 37% Book Odds: +171
Book Implied: 67.60% / 36.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 77%
Under 7.5 23%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
DodgersLAD (-1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

35.4%

Marlins Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.0%

MIA By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
4.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.50
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Dodgers Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 LAD @ MIA 4 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 LAD @ MIA 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 LAD @ MIA 6 - 2
Apr 29, 2026 MIA @ LAD 3 - 2
Apr 28, 2026 MIA @ LAD 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.762 ▲
OPS
.727
204 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +33.7% more
Los Angeles: 2.0 vs Miami: 1.3
Walks (L5) +27.1% more
Los Angeles: 5.1 vs Miami: 3.7
Home Runs (Season) +17.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Runs per Game (Season) +10.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Miami: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.0 6
MIA Score 4.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.2 / 9.1 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 2.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 8.9 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 19.2 / 17.8 13.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.7 / 5.1 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -208 / +170 → -209 / +171
93%TICKETS7%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
86%TICKETS14%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAD
MIA
LAD
ML
48% 78-84
56% 92-73
55% 88-72
48% 79-87
ATS
56% 91-71
59% 98-67
54% 86-74
43% 72-94
TTL
56% 88-69-5
48% 77-82-6
53% 82-73-5
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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