Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Yankees COL @ NYY

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

55-91  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Sep 10 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

84-62  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Feltner
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Feltner

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Max Fried
STARTING PITCHER

Max Fried

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Feltner 5-9 5.91 1.58 106.2 81
Max Fried 4-4 2.73 0.99 95.2 87
5-9 W-L 4-4
5.91 ERA Ldr 2.73
1.58 WHIP Ldr 0.99
106.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 95.2
81 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 87
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
27%
📊
YANKEES
73%
ROCKIES 29% Book Odds: +242
YANKEES 75% Book Odds: -305
Book Implied: 29.20% / 75.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 57%
Under 8.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 YankeesNYY (-1.5)
New York Yankees (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

30.9%

Yankees Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

COL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
5.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Yankees Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim Yankees Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 COL @ NYY 3 - 10
Sep 9, 2026 COL @ NYY 1 - 6
Sep 8, 2026 COL @ NYY 3 - 5
May 25, 2025 NYY @ COL 5 - 4
May 24, 2025 NYY @ COL 13 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.739
OPS
▲ 1.041
180 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +94.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Colorado: 4.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +17.7%
New York: 59.4% vs Colorado: 41.7%
On-Base Pct (Season) +12.5%
New York: 44.7% vs Colorado: 32.2%
Home Runs (L5) +12.4% more
New York: 1.5 vs Colorado: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.5 3
NYY Score 5.5 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 7.1 11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 10.0 12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.8 / 13.0 19.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.8 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +201 / -249 → +242 / -305 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
6%TICKETS94%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 8.5 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
COL
NYY
COL
ML
47% 76-85
60% 97-64
52% 85-77
55% 88-73
ATS
59% 95-66
60% 97-64
53% 86-76
52% 83-78
TTL
53% 81-73-7
60% 93-62-6
53% 82-72-7
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 11 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 8 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 18 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 7 hours, 22 minutes ago