TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
72-75 | Road
3
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
69-78 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Gilbert
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 10-9 | 3.96 | 1.12 | 143.1 | 174 |
| Logan Gilbert | 11-9 | 3.71 | 1.07 | 165.0 | 176 |
10-9
W-L
11-9
3.96
ERA
Ldr 3.71
1.12
WHIP
Ldr 1.07
143.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 165.0
174
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 176
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
36%
MARINERS
64%
▲ Edge: +9.50% (SEA)
RANGERS
50%
Book Odds: -101
MARINERS
54%
Book Odds: -119
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.0
65%
Under 7.0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.2%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.20
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.20
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rangers
Loss
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.5
A
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TEX @ SEA
3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026
TEX @ SEA
2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026
TEX @ SEA
10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026
SEA @ TEX
3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026
SEA @ TEX
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.713
▲
OPS
.693
183
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+24.8% more
Seattle: 3.6
vs
Texas: 2.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.8% more
Seattle: 8.9
vs
Texas: 7.6
Home Runs (L5)
+82.8% more
Texas: 2.3
vs
Seattle: 0.4
Errors (L5)
+54.0% more
Texas: 0.9
vs
Seattle: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.5
3
SEA Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.8
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 2.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 7.6
13.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 16.3
7.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.9
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -157
→
-101 / -119
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TEX
SEA
TEX
ML
50%
81-81
53%
86-76
52%
85-77
57%
91-70
ATS
60%
98-64
57%
92-70
59%
95-67
61%
98-63
TTL
56%
85-67-10
53%
78-70-14
53%
81-71-10
55%
81-66-14
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