COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
55-90 | Road
1
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
83-62 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tomoyuki Sugano
#11 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Will Warren
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 12-8 | 5.19 | 1.35 | 131.2 | 79 |
| Will Warren | 9-6 | 4.16 | 1.38 | 136.1 | 133 |
12-8
W-L
9-6
5.19
ERA
Ldr 4.16
1.35 Ldr
WHIP
1.38
131.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 136.1
79
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 133
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
27%
YANKEES
73%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (NYY)
ROCKIES
33%
Book Odds: +203
YANKEES
72%
Book Odds: -251
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 9.5
42%
Under 9.5
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1-2 runs
15.0%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.2%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Yankees
Win
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
COL @ NYY
3 - 10
Sep 9, 2026
COL @ NYY
1 - 6
Sep 8, 2026
COL @ NYY
3 - 5
May 25, 2025
NYY @ COL
5 - 4
May 24, 2025
NYY @ COL
13 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.739
OPS
▲
1.041
180
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+94.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Slugging Pct (Season)
+17.7%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Colorado: 41.7%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+12.5%
New York: 44.7%
vs
Colorado: 32.2%
Batting Avg (Season)
+12.1%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Colorado: 25.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.5
1
NYY Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.1
7.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 9.5
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 14.0
18.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +270 / -344
→
+203 / -251
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
COL
NYY
COL
ML
47%
76-85
60%
97-64
52%
85-77
55%
88-73
ATS
59%
95-66
60%
97-64
53%
86-76
52%
83-78
TTL
53%
81-73-7
60%
93-62-6
53%
82-72-7
50%
77-78-6
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