Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Marlins NYM @ MIA

NEW YORK

METSNYM

68-78  |  Road

15
FINAL
Wed, Sep 9 • 6:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

72-75  |  Home

14
Probable Pitchers
Robert Stock
STARTING PITCHER

Robert Stock

#89 | Starting Pitcher
@
Janson Junk
STARTING PITCHER

Janson Junk

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Robert Stock 1-3 5.81 1.75 26.1 25
Janson Junk 6-9 4.00 1.28 108.0 74
1-3 W-L 6-9
5.81 ERA Ldr 4.00
1.75 WHIP Ldr 1.28
26.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 108.0
25 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 74
AI Model Win Probability
METS
42%
📊
MARLINS
58%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (MIA)
METS 49% Book Odds: +104
MARLINS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 49% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (New York)
MetsNYM (+1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (-1.5)
New York Mets (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

63.7%

Marlins Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.5%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NYM @ MIA 15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026 NYM @ MIA 7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 NYM @ MIA 9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026 MIA @ NYM 2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 MIA @ NYM 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.705
OPS
▲ .727
204 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +11.0% more
Miami: 3.5 vs New York: 3.2
Runs per Game (Season) +2.3% more
Miami: 4.4 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +2.2%
Miami: 72.7% vs New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.6%
Miami: 32.6% vs New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.8 15
MIA Score 5.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 9.5 20.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.9 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 9.4 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.8 / 17.2 30.0 / 23.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.2 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136 → +104 / -126 ↓
46%TICKETS54%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
46%TICKETS54%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8.5 ↑
86%TICKETS14%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYM
MIA
NYM
ML
48% 78-84
50% 79-80
55% 88-72
48% 76-83
ATS
56% 91-71
58% 93-66
54% 86-74
49% 78-81
TTL
56% 88-69-5
55% 80-66-13
53% 82-73-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 22 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 11 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 21 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 7 hours, 25 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 9 minutes ago