HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
74-72 | Road
7
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
82-64 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 5-3 | 3.31 | 1.30 | 87.0 | 93 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 16-5 | 2.58 | 1.20 | 181.1 | 207 |
5-3
W-L
16-5
3.31
ERA
Ldr 2.58
1.30
WHIP
Ldr 1.20
87.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 181.1
93
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 207
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
41%
PHILLIES
59%
ASTROS
43%
Book Odds: +133
PHILLIES
62%
Book Odds: -161
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0
60%
Under 8.0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
15.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
9.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.8
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.20
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
HOU @ PHI
2 - 1
Sep 9, 2026
HOU @ PHI
7 - 11
Sep 8, 2026
HOU @ PHI
6 - 5
Jun 26, 2025
PHI @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 25, 2025
PHI @ HOU
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.50
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.286
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.582
OPS
▲
.724
4
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+16.7% more
Philadelphia: 3.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+14.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+8.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Houston: 35.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+7.8%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Houston: 16.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.8
7
PHI Score
5.2
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.6
12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 10.5
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 15.2
19.0 / 22.0
Walks
1.2 / 3.4
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +124 / -150
→
+133 / -161
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
HOU
PHI
HOU
ML
59%
97-67
50%
81-82
49%
80-84
47%
77-87
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-72
51%
83-81
55%
90-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-76-9
45%
69-86-9
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