CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
74-73 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
71-76 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Foster Griffin
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster Griffin | 15-4 | 3.26 | 1.14 | 160.1 | 142 |
| Shane Baz | 5-15 | 3.91 | 1.33 | 163.1 | 145 |
15-4
W-L
5-15
3.26 Ldr
ERA
3.91
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.33
160.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 163.1
142
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 145
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
55%
ORIOLES
45%
▲ Edge: +0.40% (CLE)
GUARDIANS
54%
Book Odds: -118
ORIOLES
51%
Book Odds: -102
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
BAL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 5
Baltimore
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 5
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
CLE @ BAL
5 - 9
Sep 8, 2026
CLE @ BAL
9 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
CLE @ BAL
4 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
BAL @ CLE
4 - 8
Apr 18, 2026
BAL @ CLE
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.696
OPS
▲
.711
162
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+32.8% more
Cleveland: 4.1
vs
Baltimore: 2.8
Hits (L5)
+27.5% more
Cleveland: 9.1
vs
Baltimore: 6.6
Total Bases (L5)
+17.2% more
Cleveland: 14.0
vs
Baltimore: 11.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.8% more
Cleveland: 11.0
vs
Baltimore: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.2
5
BAL Score
3.8
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
6.6 / 9.1
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 11.0
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 14.0
14.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -106 / -114
→
-118 / -102
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CLE
BAL
CLE
ML
53%
83-73
54%
87-74
57%
90-69
49%
80-82
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-68
57%
90-68-1
59%
95-67
TTL
54%
81-70-5
55%
88-71-2
51%
78-75-6
43%
69-90-2
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