Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ USC UL @ USC

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

1-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 11:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

3-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Mason Golding
KEY GAME

Mason Golding

#49 | Punter
@
Lachlan Carrigan
KEY GAME

Lachlan Carrigan

#35 | Punter
Player
Mason Golding None-None
Lachlan Carrigan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
4%
📊
USC
96%
LOUISIANA --
USC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (USC)
LouisianaUL (-3.5) 0 USCUSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

1.1%

USC Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USC -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

UL By 1-6 points

0.7%

UL By 7-13 points

0.2%

USC By 1-6 points

2.2%

USC By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
15.5
LOUISIANA
47.5
USC
Simulated Score
27
LOUISIANA
32
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI USC Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim USC Win
68% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI USC (-31) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Louisiana (+31) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 63.0
B
Sim o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 UL @ USC 30 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
USC: 464.8 vs Louisiana: 390.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
USC: 0.6 vs Louisiana: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +14.4% more
USC: 24.3 vs Louisiana: 21.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.0% more
Louisiana: 191.0 vs USC: 129.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 15.5 30
USC Score 47.5 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 21.2 25.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 129.9 / 191.0 214.0 / 146.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.73 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 464.8 / 390.7 483.0 / 358.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 2.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2500 / -7000 → +2500 / -7000
1%TICKETS99%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +31 / -31 → +31 / -31
48%TICKETS52%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 58.5 → 58.5
18%TICKETS82%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +7.3
USC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.3 ATS +/-: -7.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
2-0-1 (100.0%)
Margin: 6.3 ATS +/-: +7.3
USC
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.3 ATS +/-: -7.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.2
USC
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
UL
USC
UL
ML
100% 4-0
100% 3-0
100% 4-0
100% 3-0
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 1-1-1
100% 4-0
50% 1-1-1
TTL
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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