Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ Texas OSU @ TEX

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

1-1  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 7:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

2-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
@
Mac Chiumento
KEY GAME

Mac Chiumento

#43 | Punter
Player
Joe McGuire None-None
Mac Chiumento None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
58%
📊
TEXAS
42%
▲ Edge: +9.80% (OSU)
OHIO STATE 48% Book Odds: +107
TEXAS 55% Book Odds: -120
Book Implied: 48.30% / 54.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.5
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 50.5 41%
Under 50.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Ohio State)
Ohio StateOSU (+1.5) 0 TexasTEX (-1.5)
Ohio State Buckeyes (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

59.9%

Texas Cover

40.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OSU -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

OSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

OSU By 7-13 points

17.8%

TEX By 1-6 points

15.0%

TEX By 7-13 points

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
25
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
21.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
30
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 24.50
34
TEXAS
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio State Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Texas Win
65% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ohio State (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.5
C
Sim Texas (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u50.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.5
C
Sim o50.5 Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 OSU @ TEX 23 - 24
Aug 30, 2025 TEX @ OSU 7 - 14
Jan 10, 2025 OSU @ TEX 28 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +40.9% more
Ohio State: 1.2 vs Texas: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.5% more
Ohio State: 187.3 vs Texas: 139.5
First Downs (L5) +15.8% more
Ohio State: 26.2 vs Texas: 22.1
Total Yards (L5) +13.3% more
Ohio State: 514.6 vs Texas: 446.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 25.0 23
TEX Score 21.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 26.2 25.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 139.5 / 187.3 141.0 / 94.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 446.0 / 514.6 336.0 / 372.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -104 / -112 → +107 / -120 ↑
48%TICKETS52%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
65%TICKETS35%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 50.5 ↑
64%TICKETS36%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 21.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
TEX
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 21.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
TEX
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 13.6 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
TEX
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
OSU
TEX
OSU
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
75% 6-2
ATS
38% 3-5
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
TTL
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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