Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rice @ Notre Dame RICE @ ND

RICE

RICERICE

1-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 3:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

2-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Charlie Durkin
KEY GAME

Charlie Durkin

#29 | Punter
@
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
Player
Charlie Durkin None-None
Jasper Scaife None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICE
7%
📊
NOTRE DAME
93%
RICE --
NOTRE DAME --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.5
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 54.5 53%
Under 54.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+27.5
RICE
Book Spread
+44.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Rice)
RiceRICE (+44.5) 0 Notre DameND (-44.5)
Rice Owls (+44.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rice Cover

97.5%

Notre Dame Cover

2.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around RICE +27.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)

RICE By 1-6 points

1.5%

RICE By 7-13 points

0.6%

ND By 1-6 points

4.0%

ND By 7-13 points

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
14
RICE
Book Implied: 5
41.5
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 49.50
Simulated Score
20
RICE
Book Implied: 5
35
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 49.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Notre Dame Win
93% Win Prob
B
Sim Notre Dame Win
93% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rice (+44.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +27.5
A
Sim Rice (+44.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.5
D
Sim o54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 RICE @ ND 0 - 52
Aug 30, 2014 RICE @ ND 17 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Notre Dame: 423.5 vs Rice: 383.9
Turnovers (L5) +67.6% more
Rice: 1.0 vs Notre Dame: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +40.5% more
Rice: 314.6 vs Notre Dame: 187.0
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
Rice: 0.6 vs Notre Dame: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICE Score 14.0 0
ND Score 41.5 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 21.3 24.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 187.0 / 314.6 118.0 / 64.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 423.5 / 383.9 478.0 / 128.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +44.5 / -44.5 → +44.5 / -44.5
87%TICKETS13%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
1-2-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
ND Advantage
3-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 32.3 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: -10.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
ND
2-1-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 32.3 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.5
ND
1-2-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
RICE
ND
RICE
ML
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
100% 3-0
67% 2-1
ATS
33% 1-2
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
TTL
67% 2-1
67% 2-1
33% 1-2
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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