Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oklahoma @ Michigan OU @ MICH

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

1-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 12 • 12:00 PM ET
Michigan Stadium
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

2-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
Grayson Miller
KEY GAME

Grayson Miller

#43 | Place kicker
@
Cam Brown
KEY GAME

Cam Brown

#33 | Punter
Player
Grayson Miller None-None
Cam Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OKLAHOMA
38%
📊
MICHIGAN
62%
▲ Edge: +25.20% (MICH)
OKLAHOMA 67% Book Odds: -202
MICHIGAN 37% Book Odds: +172
Book Implied: 66.90% / 36.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.6
Projected
Book Total
43.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 (Over)
Over 43.5 61%
Under 43.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
MICHIGAN
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Michigan)
OklahomaOU (-4.5) 0 MichiganMICH (+4.5)
Michigan Wolverines (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oklahoma Cover

36.0%

Michigan Cover

64.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MICH -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MICH)

OU By 1-6 points

14.2%

OU By 7-13 points

11.3%

MICH By 1-6 points

16.9%

MICH By 7-13 points

18.5%

AI Model Projected Score
21.8
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 24
26.8
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
22
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 24
34
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Michigan Win
62% Win Prob
D
Sim Michigan Win
88% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Michigan (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
B
Sim Michigan (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.6
C
Sim o43.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 OU @ MICH 10 - 17
Sep 6, 2025 MICH @ OU 13 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +94.9% more
Michigan: 2.3 vs Oklahoma: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.5% more
Michigan: 150.4 vs Oklahoma: 115.2
Total Yards (L5) +12.7% more
Oklahoma: 359.0 vs Michigan: 313.4
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Oklahoma: 0.5 vs Michigan: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OU Score 21.8 10
MICH Score 26.8 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.8 / 16.7 14.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 150.4 / 115.2 152.0 / 100.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 313.4 / 359.0 263.0 / 289.0
Turnovers 2.3 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -220 / +181 → -202 / +172 ↑
86%TICKETS14%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -5.5 / +5.5 → -4.5 / +4.5 ↑
79%TICKETS21%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 44.5 → 43.5 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -4.3
MICH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -4.3
MICH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -6.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
MICH
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MICH
OU
MICH
OU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Bye Week: Four Must-Watch College Football Games for Trojans…
si 38 minutes ago
Michigan Set to Host No. 1 Overall 2028 Prospect Kellan Hall for…
si 38 minutes ago
College Football Playoff Set for Massive Expansion to 24 Teams i…
yahoo 45 minutes ago
BYU vs. Notre Dame: A Bowl Game Grudge Match with Playoff Implic…
yahoo 6 hours, 52 minutes ago
Tennessee Picks George MacIntyre to Start vs. Alabama as Faizon …
newsweek 6 hours, 54 minutes ago