Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Padres WSH @ SD

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

67-80  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Sep 8 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

77-68  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Riley Cornelio
STARTING PITCHER

Riley Cornelio

#74 | Relief Pitcher
@
Casey Mize
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Mize

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Riley Cornelio 2-2 5.96 1.81 22.2 23
Casey Mize 5-9 3.64 1.12 113.2 100
2-2 W-L 5-9
5.96 ERA Ldr 3.64
1.81 WHIP Ldr 1.12
22.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 113.2
23 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 100
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
28%
📊
PADRES
72%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (SD)
NATIONALS 39% Book Odds: +158
PADRES 66% Book Odds: -193
Book Implied: 38.80% / 65.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 59%
Under 8.0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
Washington Nationals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

63.7%

Padres Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.5%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.20
6
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Padres Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026 WSH @ SD 4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 3
May 31, 2026 SD @ WSH 2 - 4
May 30, 2026 SD @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.744
OPS
▲ .925
210 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +62.0% more
San Diego: 1.3 vs Washington: 0.7
Walks (L5) +42.0% more
San Diego: 3.9 vs Washington: 2.7
Errors (L5) +25.0% more
San Diego: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +18.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.8 4
SD Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.6 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 9.6 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 12.2 6.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.7 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +166 / -205 → +158 / -193 ↓
23%TICKETS77%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
16%TICKETS84%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
WSH
SD
WSH
ML
51% 85-83
57% 92-69
51% 85-82
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-68
55% 92-75
57% 91-70
TTL
51% 82-80-6
50% 77-78-6
54% 86-74-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 20 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 26 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 19 hours, 7 minutes ago