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TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

72-73  |  Road

10
FINAL
Tue, Sep 8 • 9:40 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

67-78  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryce Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Miller

#50 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Cal Quantrill 7-5 2.79 1.07 96.2 73
Bryce Miller 4-8 4.01 1.11 98.2 95
7-5 W-L 4-8
2.79 Ldr ERA 4.01
1.07 Ldr WHIP 1.11
96.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 98.2
73 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 95
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
38%
📊
MARINERS
62%
▲ Edge: +6% (SEA)
RANGERS 49% Book Odds: +104
MARINERS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 49% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 60%
Under 7.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
RangersTEX (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

64.6%

Mariners Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

9.2%

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Mariners Loss
62% Win Prob
B
Sim Rangers Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 TEX @ SEA 3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026 TEX @ SEA 2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026 TEX @ SEA 10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026 SEA @ TEX 3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026 SEA @ TEX 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.15 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.713 ▲
OPS
.693
183 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +41.4% more
Seattle: 9.0 vs Texas: 6.4
Home Runs (L5) +81.9% more
Texas: 2.1 vs Seattle: 0.4
Errors (L5) +70.0% more
Texas: 0.9 vs Seattle: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +38.4% more
Texas: 16.9 vs Seattle: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 3.5 10
SEA Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.0 / 9.1 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 2.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 6.4 16.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.4 / 16.9 15.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.7 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -145 → +104 / -126 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
51%TICKETS49%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 7.5 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TEX
SEA
TEX
ML
50% 81-81
53% 86-76
52% 85-77
57% 91-70
ATS
60% 98-64
57% 92-70
59% 95-67
61% 98-63
TTL
56% 85-67-10
53% 78-70-14
53% 81-71-10
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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