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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

78-68  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Sep 8 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

64-82  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Corbin Burnes
STARTING PITCHER

Corbin Burnes

#39 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Corbin Burnes 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
Michael Wacha 9-8 3.36 1.10 176.2 143
0-0 W-L 9-8
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.36
0.00 Ldr WHIP 1.10
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 176.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 143
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
📊
ROYALS
60%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (KC)
DIAMONDBACKS 51% Book Odds: -103
ROYALS 54% Book Odds: -117
Book Implied: 50.70% / 53.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Kansas City)
DiamondbacksARI (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

36.3%

Royals Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

ARI By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ARI By 3-4 runs

9.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Diamondbacks Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 ARI @ KC 2 - 5
Sep 8, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 3
Sep 7, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 4
Jul 6, 2025 KC @ ARI 4 - 0
Jul 5, 2025 KC @ ARI 1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
166
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +41.0% more
Kansas City: 1.1 vs Arizona: 0.7
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Kansas City: 0.7 vs Arizona: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +17.5% more
Kansas City: 13.0 vs Arizona: 11.1
Runs per Game (Season) +6.6% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 3.8 5
KC Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.7 / 8.0 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.7 / 7.6 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 11.1 13.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.4 7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -103 / -117 → -103 / -117
58%TICKETS42%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
82%TICKETS18%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
ARI
KC
ARI
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
54% 86-74
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
56% 89-71
TTL
58% 90-64-7
52% 80-73-8
54% 83-70-7
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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