TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
86-58 | Road
7
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
85-60 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Freddy Peralta
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 7-11 | 4.96 | 1.37 | 147.0 | 140 |
| Bryce Elder | 8-8 | 4.11 | 1.27 | 149.0 | 121 |
7-11
W-L
8-8
4.96
ERA
Ldr 4.11
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.27
147.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.0
140 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
121
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
60%
BRAVES
40%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (TB)
RAYS
51%
Book Odds: -103
BRAVES
54%
Book Odds: -117
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.2%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5
Atlanta
3.8
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TB @ ATL
1 - 3
Sep 9, 2026
TB @ ATL
7 - 2
Sep 8, 2026
TB @ ATL
7 - 1
Apr 13, 2025
ATL @ TB
3 - 8
Apr 12, 2025
ATL @ TB
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.728
OPS
▲
.757
169
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+75.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1
vs
Atlanta: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+33.2% more
Tampa Bay: 9.4
vs
Atlanta: 6.3
Total Bases (L5)
+22.3% more
Tampa Bay: 14.0
vs
Atlanta: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.2
7
ATL Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 9.4
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 8.0
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 14.0
5.0 / 25.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.7
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120
→
-103 / -117
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TB
ATL
TB
ML
46%
77-90
58%
95-68
54%
90-78
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
96-71
60%
97-66
52%
87-81
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
83-73-11
47%
73-81-9
49%
76-80-11
51%
78-75-10
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