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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

55-90  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Sep 8 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

80-66  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Reid Detmers
STARTING PITCHER

Reid Detmers

#48 | Starting Pitcher
@
Patrick Sandoval
STARTING PITCHER

Patrick Sandoval

#43 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Reid Detmers 4-8 3.44 1.06 162.0 182
Patrick Sandoval 1-4 4.41 1.73 49.0 50
4-8 W-L 1-4
3.44 Ldr ERA 4.41
1.06 Ldr WHIP 1.73
162.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 49.0
182 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 50
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
45%
📊
RED SOX
55%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (LAA)
ANGELS 45% Book Odds: +123
RED SOX 60% Book Odds: -149
Book Implied: 44.80% / 59.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 65%
Under 7.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

63.7%

Red Sox Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 4
Sep 8, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 1
Sep 7, 2026 LAA @ BOS 2 - 5
Jul 5, 2026 BOS @ LAA 7 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 BOS @ LAA 8 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.369 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.679 ▲
OPS
.409
154 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +113.4% more
Boston: 4.3 vs Los Angeles: 2.0
Home Runs (L5) +77.0% more
Boston: 1.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +35.2% more
Boston: 13.4 vs Los Angeles: 9.9
Hits (L5) +13.7% more
Boston: 7.6 vs Los Angeles: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.8 6
BOS Score 5.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 6.6 4.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 11.2 13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 9.9 5.0 / 23.0
Walks 4.3 / 2.0 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +149 / -181 → +123 / -149 ↓
18%TICKETS82%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
17%TICKETS83%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 7.5 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
LAA
BOS
LAA
ML
50% 80-80
59% 96-66
47% 76-87
55% 89-73
ATS
58% 93-67
60% 97-65
48% 79-84
51% 82-80
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 83-74-5
47% 74-83-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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