NEW YORK
METSNYM
67-78 | Road
7
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
72-74 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | 4-7 | 4.70 | 1.36 | 128.1 | 122 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 13-9 | 3.54 | 1.19 | 195.2 | 142 |
4-7
W-L
13-9
4.70
ERA
Ldr 3.54
1.36
WHIP
Ldr 1.19
128.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 195.2
122
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 142
AI Model Win Probability
METS
44%
MARLINS
56%
▲ Edge: +2.50% (MIA)
METS
51%
Book Odds: -105
MARLINS
54%
Book Odds: -115
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 8.0
65%
Under 8.0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
NYM By 1-2 runs
15.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
9.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
5.5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Miami
4
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
61% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
B
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.705
OPS
▲
.727
204
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+132.5% more
Miami: 5.3
vs
New York: 2.3
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
Miami: 0.8
vs
New York: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+11.7% more
Miami: 1.4
vs
New York: 1.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.0
7
MIA Score
5.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.4 / 10.3
10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 10.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 16.3
15.0 / 19.0
Walks
5.3 / 2.3
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118
→
-105 / -115
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYM
MIA
NYM
ML
48%
78-84
50%
79-80
55%
88-72
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-66
54%
86-74
49%
78-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
55%
80-66-13
53%
82-73-5
51%
74-72-13
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