HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
74-71 | Road
6
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
81-64 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hayden Wesneski
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski | 4-1 | 3.18 | 1.06 | 39.2 | 33 |
| Andrew Painter | 3-8 | 5.55 | 1.37 | 105.1 | 91 |
4-1
W-L
3-8
3.18 Ldr
ERA
5.55
1.06 Ldr
WHIP
1.37
39.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 105.1
33
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 91
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
56%
PHILLIES
44%
▲ Edge: +9.70% (HOU)
ASTROS
47%
Book Odds: +114
PHILLIES
58%
Book Odds: -137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Philadelphia
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
56% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
HOU @ PHI
2 - 1
Sep 9, 2026
HOU @ PHI
7 - 11
Sep 8, 2026
HOU @ PHI
6 - 5
Jun 26, 2025
PHI @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 25, 2025
PHI @ HOU
0 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
2
Games Played
2
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
3.50
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.286
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.582
OPS
▲
.724
4
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+44.4% more
Houston: 3.1
vs
Philadelphia: 1.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.3% more
Houston: 10.7
vs
Philadelphia: 8.8
Hits (L5)
+15.1% more
Houston: 7.4
vs
Philadelphia: 6.3
Home Runs (L5)
+39.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.1
vs
Houston: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.0
6
PHI Score
3.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 7.4
10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.7
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 10.7
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 11.8
18.0 / 22.0
Walks
1.7 / 3.1
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+114 / -137
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
HOU
PHI
HOU
ML
59%
97-67
50%
81-82
49%
80-84
47%
77-87
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
91-72
51%
83-81
55%
90-74
TTL
57%
88-67-9
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-76-9
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…