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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

77-68  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Sep 7 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

64-81  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Derek Law
STARTING PITCHER

Derek Law

#38 | Relief Pitcher
@
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Derek Law 0-0 1.93 1.07 4.2 3
Noah Cameron 9-8 4.08 1.22 154.1 138
0-0 W-L 9-8
1.93 Ldr ERA 4.08
1.07 Ldr WHIP 1.22
4.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 154.1
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 138
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
53%
📊
ROYALS
47%
▲ Edge: +1.80% (ARI)
DIAMONDBACKS 52% Book Odds: -107
ROYALS 53% Book Odds: -112
Book Implied: 51.70% / 52.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.0 47%
Under 9.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
DiamondbacksARI (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

35.4%

Royals Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

15.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 5.20
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim o9.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 ARI @ KC 2 - 5
Sep 8, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 3
Sep 7, 2026 ARI @ KC 5 - 4
Jul 6, 2025 KC @ ARI 4 - 0
Jul 5, 2025 KC @ ARI 1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
166
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +25.6% more
Arizona: 7.4 vs Kansas City: 5.5
Runs per Game (Season) +6.6% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Kansas City: 4.3
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.2%
Arizona: 31.8% vs Kansas City: 31.6%
Home Runs (L5) +61.0% more
Kansas City: 1.6 vs Arizona: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 5.0 5
KC Score 3.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.6 / 7.1 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.5 / 7.4 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 11.7 11.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.2 / 1.6 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → -107 / -112
51%TICKETS49%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
52%TICKETS48%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 9 ↑
71%TICKETS29%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
ARI
KC
ARI
ML
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
54% 86-74
ATS
57% 91-70
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
56% 89-71
TTL
58% 90-64-7
52% 80-73-8
54% 83-70-7
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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