Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Red Sox LAA @ BOS

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

54-90  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Sep 7 • 1:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

80-65  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Grayson Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Grayson Rodriguez

#21 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brayan Bello
STARTING PITCHER

Brayan Bello

#66 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grayson Rodriguez 4-6 6.03 1.52 77.2 72
Brayan Bello 5-7 5.07 1.46 97.2 70
4-6 W-L 5-7
6.03 ERA Ldr 5.07
1.52 WHIP Ldr 1.46
77.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 97.2
72 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 70
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
45%
📊
RED SOX
55%
▲ Edge: +5.10% (LAA)
ANGELS 40% Book Odds: +149
RED SOX 64% Book Odds: -181
Book Implied: 40.20% / 64.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (-1.5)
Los Angeles Angels (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

63.7%

Red Sox Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

15.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

9.5%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.50
4
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 4
Sep 8, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 1
Sep 7, 2026 LAA @ BOS 2 - 5
Jul 5, 2026 BOS @ LAA 7 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 BOS @ LAA 8 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.369 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.679 ▲
OPS
.409
154 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +160.9% more
Boston: 3.9 vs Los Angeles: 1.5
Home Runs (L5) +66.0% more
Boston: 1.1 vs Los Angeles: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +17.5% more
Boston: 11.5 vs Los Angeles: 9.8
Errors (L5) +11.0% more
Boston: 0.1 vs Los Angeles: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.8 2
BOS Score 5.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 7.0 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 9.2 6.0 / 15.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 9.8 17.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.9 / 1.5 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +134 → +149 / -181 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
10%TICKETS90%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 8.5 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
LAA
BOS
LAA
ML
50% 80-80
59% 96-66
47% 76-87
55% 89-73
ATS
58% 93-67
60% 97-65
48% 79-84
51% 82-80
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 83-74-5
47% 74-83-6
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 54 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 44 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 50 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 54 minutes ago
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
yahoo 1 day, 18 hours ago