Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Chargers ARI @ LAC

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

1-0  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:25 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

0-1  |  Home

14
Key Game
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
@
JK Scott
KEY GAME

JK Scott

#16 | Punter
Player
Blake Gillikin None-None
JK Scott None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
22%
📊
CHARGERS
78%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (ARI)
CARDINALS 20% Book Odds: +392
CHARGERS 83% Book Odds: -482
Book Implied: 20.30% / 82.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.0 (Under)
Over 47.0 39%
Under 47.0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Arizona)
CardinalsARI (+9.5) 0 ChargersLAC (-9.5)
Arizona Cardinals (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

67.6%

Chargers Cover

32.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARI +6.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ARI By 1-6 points

13.3%

ARI By 7-13 points

10.1%

LAC By 1-6 points

16.6%

LAC By 7-13 points

19.1%

AI Model Projected Score
18.8
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 18.80
25.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
18
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 18.80
29
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Chargers Loss
78% Win Prob
A
Sim Chargers Loss
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.4
C
Sim Chargers (-9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u47.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Sim u47.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 ARI @ LAC 26 - 14
Oct 21, 2024 LAC @ ARI 15 - 17
Nov 27, 2022 LAC @ ARI 25 - 24
Nov 25, 2018 ARI @ LAC 10 - 45
Sep 8, 2014 LAC @ ARI 17 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.1% more
Los Angeles: 152.7 vs Arizona: 103.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +38.8% more
Arizona: 285.6 vs Los Angeles: 174.8
First Downs (L5) +24.3% more
Arizona: 23.2 vs Los Angeles: 17.6
Total Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Arizona: 389.4 vs Los Angeles: 327.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 18.8 26
LAC Score 25.2 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 23.2 17.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 174.8 / 285.6 187.0 / 277.0
Rushing Yards 152.7 / 103.8 81.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 327.5 / 389.4 268.0 / 393.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.7 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.6 5.3 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +395 / -510 → +392 / -482 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47 → 47
10%TICKETS90%
23%MONEY77%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: +1.0
LAC
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -20.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: +1.0
LAC
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -20.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
0-2-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -5.5
LAC
0-2-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
ARI
LAC
ARI
ML
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
ATS
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
0% 0-2
0% 0-2
TTL
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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