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WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

0-1  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:25 PM ET
Lincoln Financial Field
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

1-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
Braden Mann
KEY GAME

Braden Mann

#10 | Punter
Player
Tress Way None-None
Braden Mann None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
33%
📊
EAGLES
67%
▲ Edge: +1.80% (WSH)
COMMANDERS 31% Book Odds: +224
EAGLES 72% Book Odds: -256
Book Implied: 30.90% / 71.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.4
Projected
Book Total
44.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 44.5 56%
Under 44.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
-6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Philadelphia)
CommandersWSH (+6) 0 EaglesPHI (-6)
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

26.0%

Eagles Cover

74.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PHI -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

WSH By 1-6 points

11.5%

WSH By 7-13 points

8.0%

PHI By 1-6 points

15.7%

PHI By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
18.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 19.20
27.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
21
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 19.20
25
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Eagles Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Eagles Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Eagles (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
B
Sim Commanders (+6) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.4
C
Sim o44.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 WSH @ PHI 22 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 24 - 17
Dec 20, 2025 PHI @ WSH 29 - 18
Jan 26, 2025 WSH @ PHI 23 - 55
Dec 22, 2024 PHI @ WSH 33 - 36
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +38.7% more
Philadelphia: 19.5 vs Washington: 14.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +25.6% more
Philadelphia: 182.1 vs Washington: 145.0
Total Yards (L5) +25.3% more
Philadelphia: 312.2 vs Washington: 249.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +24.9% more
Philadelphia: 130.2 vs Washington: 104.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 18.2 22
PHI Score 27.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 14.1 10.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 182.1 / 145.0 182.0 / 163.0
Rushing Yards 130.2 / 104.3 136.0 / 132.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.43 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 312.2 / 249.3 318.0 / 295.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.4 6.0 / 4.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +194 / -225 → +224 / -256 ↑
4%TICKETS96%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4 / -4 → +6 / -6 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 44.5 ↓
14%TICKETS86%
19%MONEY81%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -4.3
PHI Advantage
2-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -4.3
PHI
0-2-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +3.8
PHI
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
ATS
0% 0-2
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
TTL
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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