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GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

0-1  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 4:25 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

1-0  |  Home

39
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Brett Thorson
KEY GAME

Brett Thorson

#19 | Punter
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Brett Thorson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
52%
📊
VIKINGS
48%
▲ Edge: +5.70% (GB)
PACKERS 47% Book Odds: +114
VIKINGS 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 46.70% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.6
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.4 (Under)
Over 46.0 38%
Under 46.0 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Green Bay)
PackersGB (+1) 0 VikingsMIN (-1)
Green Bay Packers (+1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

69.1%

Vikings Cover

30.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GB -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

GB By 1-6 points

16.5%

GB By 7-13 points

19.3%

MIN By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIN By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
24.8
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 22.50
17.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 23.50
Simulated Score
21
GREEN BAY
Book Implied: 22.50
24
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 23.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Packers Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Packers (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim Vikings (-1) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u46.0 Loss
Proj Total: 42.6
B
Sim u46.0 Loss
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 GB @ MIN 22 - 39
Jan 4, 2026 GB @ MIN 3 - 16
Nov 23, 2025 MIN @ GB 6 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 GB @ MIN 25 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 MIN @ GB 31 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.9% more
Green Bay: 123.6 vs Minnesota: 97.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Green Bay: 0.5 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +17.6% more
Green Bay: 330.9 vs Minnesota: 272.8
First Downs (L5) +16.4% more
Green Bay: 20.4 vs Minnesota: 17.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 24.8 22
MIN Score 17.8 39
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.0 / 20.4 19.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 175.1 / 207.3 132.0 / 353.0
Rushing Yards 97.7 / 123.6 107.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 272.8 / 330.9 239.0 / 419.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.5 3.9 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -118 → +114 / -126 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → +1 / -1
57%TICKETS43%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 46 ↑
9%TICKETS91%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN Advantage
6-1-0 (85.7%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +0.3
MIN
4-3-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.0
MIN
1-6-0
O: 14.3% / U: 85.7% Total +/-: -9.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
GB
MIN
GB
ML
57% 4-3
75% 6-2
71% 5-2
62% 5-3
ATS
29% 2-5
43% 3-4-1
86% 6-1
43% 3-4-1
TTL
14% 1-6
38% 3-5
14% 1-6
62% 5-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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