Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Jaguars CLE @ JAX

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

0-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

1-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Corey Bojorquez None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
25%
📊
JAGUARS
75%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (CLE)
BROWNS 22% Book Odds: +358
JAGUARS 81% Book Odds: -434
Book Implied: 21.80% / 81.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.4
Projected
Book Total
40.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 40.5 54%
Under 40.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+7.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Cleveland)
BrownsCLE (+9.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (-9.5)
Cleveland Browns (+9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

69.1%

Jaguars Cover

30.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLE +7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-6 points

12.9%

CLE By 7-13 points

9.6%

JAX By 1-6 points

16.5%

JAX By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 15.50
24.2
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
16
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 15.50
24
JACKSONVILLE
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jaguars Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim Jaguars Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Browns (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Sim Browns (+9.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o40.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.4
C
Sim u40.5 Loss
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CLE @ JAX 10 - 34
Sep 15, 2024 CLE @ JAX 18 - 13
Dec 10, 2023 JAX @ CLE 27 - 31
Nov 29, 2020 CLE @ JAX 27 - 25
Nov 19, 2017 JAX @ CLE 19 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Jacksonville: 223.1 vs Cleveland: 195.4
First Downs (L5) +10.6% more
Jacksonville: 19.0 vs Cleveland: 17.1
Turnovers (L5) +44.3% more
Cleveland: 1.4 vs Jacksonville: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 17.2 10
JAX Score 24.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.0 / 17.1 23.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 223.1 / 195.4 234.0 / 185.0
Rushing Yards 101.7 / 107.7 126.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 324.7 / 303.1 360.0 / 272.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 5.1 6.4 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +313 / -386 → +358 / -434 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↑
36%TICKETS64%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 40.5 → 40.5
31%TICKETS69%
31%MONEY69%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.5
JAX
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +5.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -1.5
JAX
1-1-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +5.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
2-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +2.0
JAX
1-1-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
CLE
JAX
CLE
ML
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
ATS
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
50% 1-1
TTL
100% 2-0
100% 2-0
50% 1-1
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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