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CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

1-0  |  Road

59
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

0-1  |  Home

37
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
58%
📊
PANTHERS
42%
▲ Edge: +1% (CAR)
BEARS 62% Book Odds: -160
PANTHERS 41% Book Odds: +144
Book Implied: 61.50% / 41%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 47.5 46%
Under 47.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Chicago)
BearsCHI (-3) 0 PanthersCAR (+3)
Chicago Bears (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

65.5%

Panthers Cover

34.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CHI -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

CHI By 1-6 points

16.8%

CHI By 7-13 points

18.8%

CAR By 1-6 points

13.8%

CAR By 7-13 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
25.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 25.20
20.2
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 22.20
Simulated Score
25
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 25.20
22
CAROLINA
Book Implied: 22.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Bears Win
62% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -5.6
B
Sim Panthers (-3) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
C
Sim u47.5 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CHI @ CAR 59 - 37
Oct 6, 2024 CAR @ CHI 10 - 36
Nov 9, 2023 CAR @ CHI 13 - 16
Oct 18, 2020 CHI @ CAR 23 - 16
Oct 22, 2017 CAR @ CHI 3 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.6% more
Chicago: 241.3 vs Carolina: 186.7
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Chicago: 382.3 vs Carolina: 299.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +19.8% more
Chicago: 141.0 vs Carolina: 113.1
First Downs (L5) +19.8% more
Chicago: 20.5 vs Carolina: 16.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 25.8 59
CAR Score 20.2 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 20.5 24.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards 186.7 / 241.3 353.0 / 261.0
Rushing Yards 113.1 / 141.0 125.0 / 291.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.71
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 299.8 / 382.3 478.0 / 552.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.6 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.9 7.7 / 7.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -148 / +131 → -160 / +144 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 47.5
11%TICKETS89%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: +2.8
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.1
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
CHI
CAR
CHI
ML
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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