Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Titans NYJ @ TEN

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

1-0  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

0-1  |  Home

10
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Tommy Townsend
KEY GAME

Tommy Townsend

#3 | Punter
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Tommy Townsend None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
43%
📊
TITANS
57%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (TEN)
JETS 50% Book Odds: +102
TITANS 53% Book Odds: -112
Book Implied: 49.50% / 52.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.6
Projected
Book Total
38.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 38.5 61%
Under 38.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
-1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tennessee)
JetsNYJ (+1) 0 TitansTEN (-1)
Tennessee Titans (-1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

41.5%

Titans Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

NYJ By 1-6 points

15.3%

NYJ By 7-13 points

12.9%

TEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

TEN By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 18.80
22.8
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 19.80
Simulated Score
18
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 18.80
21
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 19.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Titans Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Titans Loss
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Titans (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Titans (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.6
B
Sim o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 39.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 NYJ @ TEN 23 - 10
Sep 15, 2024 NYJ @ TEN 24 - 17
Oct 3, 2021 TEN @ NYJ 24 - 27
Dec 2, 2018 NYJ @ TEN 22 - 26
Dec 13, 2015 TEN @ NYJ 8 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +31.6% more
Tennessee: 161.7 vs New York: 122.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +31.6% more
Tennessee: 5.0 vs New York: 3.8
Total Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Tennessee: 268.3 vs New York: 220.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.5% more
Tennessee: 106.5 vs New York: 97.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 19.8 23
TEN Score 22.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.5 / 14.7 11.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 161.7 / 122.9 127.0 / 215.0
Rushing Yards 106.5 / 97.3 68.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 268.3 / 220.2 195.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 3.8 4.0 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +125 / -141 → +102 / -112 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +1 / -1 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 39 → 38.5 ↓
39%TICKETS61%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +2.0
TEN
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: +2.0
TEN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -10.2 ATS +/-: -5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.3
TEN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
NYJ
TEN
NYJ
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Jets' Week 6 Game Plan Must Include Isaiah Davis to Upset Patrio…
si 0 minutes ago
Patriots Week 6 Rooting Guide: Who New England Fans Should Cheer…
patspulpit 11 hours, 47 minutes ago
24-Team College Football Playoff: The Surprising Winners and Los…
bleacherreport 11 hours, 58 minutes ago
Alontae Taylor's Rough Start Validates ESPN's Preseason Forecast…
yahoo 1 day ago
Jets' Rookie Darrell Jackson Jr. Eyes Encore After Defensive Bre…
si 1 day, 11 hours ago