Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Titans NYJ @ TEN

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

1-0  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

0-1  |  Home

10
Key Game
Austin McNamara
KEY GAME

Austin McNamara

#14 | Punter
@
Tommy Townsend
KEY GAME

Tommy Townsend

#3 | Punter
Player
Austin McNamara None-None
Tommy Townsend None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
43%
📊
TITANS
57%
▲ Edge: +4.60% (TEN)
JETS 50% Book Odds: +102
TITANS 53% Book Odds: -112
Book Implied: 49.50% / 52.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.6
Projected
Book Total
38.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 (Over)
Over 38.5 61%
Under 38.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
-1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tennessee)
JetsNYJ (+1) 0 TitansTEN (-1)
Tennessee Titans (-1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

41.5%

Titans Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TEN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEN)

NYJ By 1-6 points

15.3%

NYJ By 7-13 points

12.9%

TEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

TEN By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
19.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 18.80
22.8
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 19.80
Simulated Score
18
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 18.80
21
TENNESSEE
Book Implied: 19.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Titans Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Titans Loss
61% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Titans (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Titans (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 42.6
B
Sim o38.5 Loss
Proj Total: 39.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 NYJ @ TEN 23 - 10
Sep 15, 2024 NYJ @ TEN 24 - 17
Oct 3, 2021 TEN @ NYJ 24 - 27
Dec 2, 2018 NYJ @ TEN 22 - 26
Dec 13, 2015 TEN @ NYJ 8 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +31.6% more
Tennessee: 161.7 vs New York: 122.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +31.6% more
Tennessee: 5.0 vs New York: 3.8
Total Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Tennessee: 268.3 vs New York: 220.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.5% more
Tennessee: 106.5 vs New York: 97.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 19.8 23
TEN Score 22.8 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.5 / 14.7 11.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 161.7 / 122.9 127.0 / 215.0
Rushing Yards 106.5 / 97.3 68.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 268.3 / 220.2 195.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 3.8 4.0 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +125 / -141 → +102 / -112 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +1 / -1 ↓
44%TICKETS56%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 39 → 38.5 ↓
39%TICKETS61%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ Advantage
2-6-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
TEN
1-7-0 (12.5%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
4-3-1 (57.1%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
TEN
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.9 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.8
TEN
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
NYJ
TEN
NYJ
ML
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
50% 4-4
62% 5-3
ATS
50% 4-4
43% 3-4-1
62% 5-3
43% 3-4-1
TTL
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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