Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Lions NO @ DET

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

0-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

1-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Ryan Wright
KEY GAME

Ryan Wright

#17 | Punter
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Ryan Wright None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
28%
📊
LIONS
72%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (NO)
SAINTS 27% Book Odds: +276
LIONS 76% Book Odds: -323
Book Implied: 26.60% / 76.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.5
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 49.5 37%
Under 49.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Detroit)
SaintsNO (+7) 0 LionsDET (-7)
Detroit Lions (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

27.2%

Lions Cover

72.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

NO By 1-6 points

11.8%

NO By 7-13 points

8.4%

DET By 1-6 points

15.9%

DET By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 21.20
27
DETROIT
Book Implied: 28.20
Simulated Score
22
NEW ORLEANS
Book Implied: 21.20
29
DETROIT
Book Implied: 28.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Lions Win
72% Win Prob
B
Sim Lions Win
75% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-7) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim Saints (+7) Win
Proj Spread: +7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 45.5
A
Sim o49.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 NO @ DET 30 - 31
Dec 3, 2023 DET @ NO 33 - 28
Oct 4, 2020 NO @ DET 35 - 29
Oct 15, 2017 DET @ NO 38 - 52
Dec 4, 2016 DET @ NO 28 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +77.0% more
Detroit: 1.5 vs New Orleans: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +28.9% more
Detroit: 246.7 vs New Orleans: 191.3
Total Yards (L5) +23.7% more
Detroit: 384.2 vs New Orleans: 310.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.4% more
Detroit: 137.6 vs New Orleans: 119.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 18.5 30
DET Score 27.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 21.5 26.0 / 29.0
Net Passing Yards 246.7 / 191.3 204.0 / 378.0
Rushing Yards 137.6 / 119.3 165.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 384.2 / 310.5 369.0 / 469.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 5.2 5.1 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +265 / -319 → +276 / -323
4%TICKETS96%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +7 / -7
38%TICKETS62%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 49.5
14%TICKETS86%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
2-5-0 (28.6%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
DET Advantage
5-2-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
3-4-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -2.5
DET
2-4-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
4-3-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +5.5
DET
5-2-0
O: 71.4% / U: 28.6% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NO
DET
NO
ML
86% 6-1
43% 3-4
57% 4-3
29% 2-5
ATS
50% 3-3-1
29% 2-5
67% 4-2-1
29% 2-5
TTL
43% 3-4
0% 0-7
29% 2-5
14% 1-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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