WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
67-78 | Road
5
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
86-57 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Wrobleski
#70 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Alvarez | 2-6 | 3.47 | 1.31 | 90.2 | 86 |
| Justin Wrobleski | 11-5 | 3.65 | 1.11 | 128.1 | 104 |
2-6
W-L
11-5
3.47 Ldr
ERA
3.65
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.11
90.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 128.1
86
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 104
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
35%
DODGERS
65%
NATIONALS
38%
Book Odds: +163
DODGERS
67%
Book Odds: -199
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
60%
Under 8.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Los Angeles
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Win
65% Win Prob
A
Sim
Dodgers
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
WSH @ LAD
5 - 7
Sep 5, 2026
WSH @ LAD
5 - 6
Sep 4, 2026
WSH @ LAD
3 - 5
Apr 5, 2026
LAD @ WSH
8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
LAD @ WSH
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.338
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.424
.744
OPS
▲
.762
210
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8
vs
Washington: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+26.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.0
vs
Washington: 3.2
OPS (Season)
+1.8%
Los Angeles: 76.2%
vs
Washington: 74.4%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.7%
Los Angeles: 33.8%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.5
5
LAD Score
5.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.8
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 10.2
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 13.1
15.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.2
5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104
→
+163 / -199
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
WSH
LAD
WSH
ML
56%
92-73
57%
92-69
48%
79-87
54%
87-74
ATS
59%
98-67
58%
93-68
43%
72-94
57%
91-70
TTL
48%
77-82-6
50%
77-78-6
44%
70-90-6
42%
65-90-6
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