Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Padres NYY @ SD

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

81-62  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

75-68  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael King
STARTING PITCHER

Michael King

#34 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gerrit Cole 8-7 3.29 1.11 104.0 110
Michael King 9-9 3.11 1.17 162.0 141
8-7 W-L 9-9
3.29 ERA Ldr 3.11
1.11 Ldr WHIP 1.17
104.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 162.0
110 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 141
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
51%
📊
PADRES
49%
YANKEES 52% Book Odds: -106
PADRES 51% Book Odds: -102
Book Implied: 51.50% / 50.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0 69%
Under 7.0 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Diego)
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 PadresSD (+1.5)
San Diego Padres (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

36.3%

Padres Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.2%

SD By 1-2 runs

15.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
3.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o7.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 NYY @ SD 3 - 4
Sep 5, 2026 NYY @ SD 5 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 NYY @ SD 2 - 3
May 7, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 4
May 6, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
San Diego SD
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
6.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.328
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.362
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.563
1.041 ▲
OPS
.925
2
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +33.7% more
New York: 9.0 vs San Diego: 5.9
Runs per Game (Season) +33.3% more
New York: 9.0 vs San Diego: 6.0
Total Bases (L5) +14.4% more
New York: 12.0 vs San Diego: 10.3
OPS (Season) +11.6%
New York: 1.0% vs San Diego: 92.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.2 3
SD Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.9 / 9.0 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 9.5 9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 10.3 / 12.0 18.0 / 9.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.0 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +133 / -156 → -106 / -102 ↓
68%TICKETS32%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1 / -1 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYY
SD
NYY
ML
51% 85-83
47% 76-85
51% 85-82
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 95-66
55% 92-75
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 81-73-7
54% 86-74-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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