TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
85-58 | Road
6
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
71-73 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
MacKenzie Gore
#1 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | 9-6 | 4.21 | 1.14 | 113.1 | 138 |
| MacKenzie Gore | 8-10 | 4.31 | 1.29 | 154.2 | 169 |
9-6
W-L
8-10
4.21 Ldr
ERA
4.31
1.14 Ldr
WHIP
1.29
113.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 154.2
138
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 169
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
53%
RANGERS
47%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (TB)
RAYS
53%
Book Odds: -111
RANGERS
52%
Book Odds: -108
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
61%
Under 7.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.5%
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Texas
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.50
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
53% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rangers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TB @ TEX
7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026
TB @ TEX
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026
TEX @ TB
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.713
169
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Texas: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+17.1% more
Tampa Bay: 9.1
vs
Texas: 7.6
Total Bases (L5)
+10.4% more
Tampa Bay: 15.5
vs
Texas: 13.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.0
6
TEX Score
3.5
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.1
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.7
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.0
4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 15.5
23.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 1.5
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110
→
-111 / -108
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TB
TEX
TB
ML
53%
86-76
58%
95-68
57%
91-70
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
92-70
60%
97-66
61%
98-63
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
78-70-14
47%
73-81-9
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-75-10
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