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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

72-72  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 2:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

64-80  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Spencer Arrighetti
STARTING PITCHER

Spencer Arrighetti

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Randy Dobnak
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Dobnak

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Spencer Arrighetti 7-8 4.82 1.34 99.0 97
Randy Dobnak 2-3 2.65 1.39 57.2 40
7-8 W-L 2-3
4.82 ERA Ldr 2.65
1.34 Ldr WHIP 1.39
99.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 57.2
97 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 40
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
40%
📊
ROYALS
60%
▲ Edge: +10.20% (KC)
BLUE JAYS 55% Book Odds: -123
ROYALS 50% Book Odds: +102
Book Implied: 55.20% / 49.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 9.5 46%
Under 9.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Kansas City)
Blue JaysTOR (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

36.3%

Royals Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

TOR By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TOR By 3-4 runs

9.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5.50
5.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5.50
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Royals Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TOR @ KC 1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026 TOR @ KC 4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TOR @ KC 9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026 KC @ TOR 13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 KC @ TOR 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .718
152
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +80.0% more
Kansas City: 1.4 vs Toronto: 0.6
Errors (L5) +66.0% more
Kansas City: 0.8 vs Toronto: 0.1
Home Runs (Season) +11.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Strikeouts (L5) +8.4% more
Kansas City: 5.8 vs Toronto: 5.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.8 1
KC Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.8 / 11.4 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 5.3 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 15.4 14.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.1 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163 → -123 / +102 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
97%MONEY3%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5 ↓
61%TICKETS39%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 9.5 ↑
66%TICKETS34%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TOR
KC
TOR
ML
55% 89-72
46% 74-87
56% 90-70
50% 80-80
ATS
57% 91-70
56% 90-71
58% 93-67
49% 79-81
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 80-76-5
54% 83-70-7
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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