WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
67-77 | Road
5
LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
85-57 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Glasnow
#31 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | 12-5 | 3.12 | 1.20 | 152.2 | 177 |
| Tyler Glasnow | 4-0 | 2.79 | 0.81 | 51.2 | 62 |
12-5
W-L
4-0
3.12
ERA
Ldr 2.79
1.20
WHIP
Ldr 0.81
152.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
51.2
177 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
62
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
31%
DODGERS
69%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (LAD)
NATIONALS
39%
Book Odds: +154
DODGERS
65%
Book Odds: -188
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.0
69%
Under 7.0
31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.8%
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.80
Los Angeles
5.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Washington
7
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 2.80
Los Angeles
5
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim
Nationals
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 5, 2026
WSH @ LAD
5 - 6
Sep 4, 2026
WSH @ LAD
3 - 5
Apr 5, 2026
LAD @ WSH
8 - 6
Apr 4, 2026
LAD @ WSH
10 - 5
Apr 3, 2026
LAD @ WSH
13 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Los Angeles
LAD
143
▲
Games Played
141
5.16
▲
Runs / Game
4.91
.248
Avg (AVG)
▲
.257
.325
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.336
.429
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.420
.753
OPS
▲
.756
193
▲
Home Runs
172
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+38.5% more
Los Angeles: 4.5
vs
Washington: 3.3
Home Runs (L5)
+24.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7
vs
Washington: 0.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.1%
Los Angeles: 33.6%
vs
Washington: 32.5%
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.9%
Los Angeles: 25.7%
vs
Washington: 24.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.5
5
LAD Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.2
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.7
13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 12.2
10.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.3
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113
→
+154 / -188
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 11.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
67-77-0
(46.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
LAD
Advantage
85-57-0
(59.9%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
LAD
(39.4%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
74-62-8
O: 54.4% / U: 45.6%
Total +/-: +1.3
LAD
65-75-2
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
WSH
LAD
WSH
ML
53%
75-66
56%
80-63
47%
67-75
54%
77-66
ATS
60%
85-56
57%
82-61
48%
68-74
55%
78-65
TTL
49%
68-71-2
49%
67-70-6
87%
122-19-1
85%
119-21-3
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