NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
81-61 | Road
5
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
74-68 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carlos Rodon
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robbie Ray
#38 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Rodon | 4-3 | 3.20 | 1.19 | 59.0 | 63 |
| Robbie Ray | 11-7 | 3.14 | 1.30 | 149.0 | 126 |
4-3
W-L
11-7
3.20
ERA
Ldr 3.14
1.19 Ldr
WHIP
1.30
59.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 149.0
63
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 126
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
52%
PADRES
48%
▲ Edge: +2.70% (NYY)
YANKEES
49%
Book Odds: +105
PADRES
56%
Book Odds: -126
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
64%
Under 7.5
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.2%
SD By 1-2 runs
15.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
San Diego
3.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
San Diego
2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
52% Win Prob
C
Sim
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
NYY @ SD
3 - 4
Sep 5, 2026
NYY @ SD
5 - 1
Sep 4, 2026
NYY @ SD
2 - 3
May 7, 2025
SD @ NYY
3 - 4
May 6, 2025
SD @ NYY
3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
San Diego
SD
142
Games Played
▲
143
4.53
▲
Runs / Game
4.21
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.236
.311
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.407
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.387
.719
▲
OPS
.700
193
▲
Home Runs
159
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+17.6% more
New York: 193.0
vs
San Diego: 159.0
Hits (L5)
+17.0% more
New York: 8.9
vs
San Diego: 7.4
Home Runs (L5)
+16.5% more
New York: 1.2
vs
San Diego: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
New York: 0.5
vs
San Diego: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.2
5
SD Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 8.9
3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 8.2
7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 13.0
6.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.5 / 1.5
7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +168 / -205
→
+105 / -126
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
81-62-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
75-68-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(48.9%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(56.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
61-77-5
O: 44.2% / U: 55.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
SD
62-77-4
O: 44.6% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYY
SD
NYY
ML
49%
70-73
44%
62-78
50%
71-71
51%
71-69
ATS
56%
80-63
59%
82-58
51%
73-69
50%
70-70
TTL
47%
66-73-4
48%
64-70-6
86%
120-19-3
86%
120-19-1
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