Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Padres NYY @ SD

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

81-61  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

74-68  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Carlos Rodon
STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Rodon

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Robbie Ray
STARTING PITCHER

Robbie Ray

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carlos Rodon 4-3 3.20 1.19 59.0 63
Robbie Ray 11-7 3.14 1.30 149.0 126
4-3 W-L 11-7
3.20 ERA Ldr 3.14
1.19 Ldr WHIP 1.30
59.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 149.0
63 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 126
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
52%
📊
PADRES
48%
▲ Edge: +2.70% (NYY)
YANKEES 49% Book Odds: +105
PADRES 56% Book Odds: -126
Book Implied: 48.80% / 55.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5 64%
Under 7.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (+1.5) 0 PadresSD (-1.5)
New York Yankees (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

63.7%

Padres Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.2%

SD By 1-2 runs

15.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
3.8
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3
2
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
52% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 NYY @ SD 3 - 4
Sep 5, 2026 NYY @ SD 5 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 NYY @ SD 2 - 3
May 7, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 4
May 6, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
San Diego SD
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
6.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.328
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.362
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.563
1.041 ▲
OPS
.925
2
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +33.3% more
New York: 9.0 vs San Diego: 6.0
Hits (L5) +17.0% more
New York: 8.9 vs San Diego: 7.4
Home Runs (L5) +16.5% more
New York: 1.2 vs San Diego: 1.0
OPS (Season) +11.6%
New York: 1.0% vs San Diego: 92.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.2 5
SD Score 3.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 8.9 3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.7 / 8.2 7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 13.0 6.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.5 / 1.5 7.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +168 / -205 → +105 / -126 ↓
58%TICKETS42%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
61%TICKETS39%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 7.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYY
SD
NYY
ML
51% 85-83
47% 76-85
51% 85-82
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 95-66
55% 92-75
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 81-73-7
54% 86-74-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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