Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Padres NYY @ SD

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

80-61  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

74-67  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Max Fried
STARTING PITCHER

Max Fried

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Walker Buehler
STARTING PITCHER

Walker Buehler

#10 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Max Fried 4-4 2.80 1.00 90.0 83
Walker Buehler 8-6 4.66 1.36 131.1 111
4-4 W-L 8-6
2.80 Ldr ERA 4.66
1.00 Ldr WHIP 1.36
90.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 131.1
83 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 111
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
55%
📊
PADRES
45%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (NYY)
YANKEES 53% Book Odds: -112
PADRES 52% Book Odds: -107
Book Implied: 52.80% / 51.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 61%
Under 7.5 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 PadresSD (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

35.4%

Padres Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.5%

SD By 1-2 runs

15.0%

SD By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
3.5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
3
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
55% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
B
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 NYY @ SD 3 - 4
Sep 5, 2026 NYY @ SD 5 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 NYY @ SD 2 - 3
May 7, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 4
May 6, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
San Diego SD
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
6.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.328
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.362
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.563
1.041 ▲
OPS
.925
2
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +33.3% more
New York: 9.0 vs San Diego: 6.0
Hits (L5) +25.5% more
New York: 10.9 vs San Diego: 8.1
Home Runs (L5) +24.4% more
New York: 1.2 vs San Diego: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +15.3% more
New York: 15.5 vs San Diego: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.0 2
SD Score 3.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 10.9 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 9.4 15.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 15.5 11.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.8 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -131 / +109 → -112 / -107 ↑
69%TICKETS31%
72%MONEY28%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
70%TICKETS30%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
95%TICKETS5%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYY
SD
NYY
ML
51% 85-83
47% 76-85
51% 85-82
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 95-66
55% 92-75
53% 86-76
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 81-73-7
54% 86-74-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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