TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
71-71 | Road
9
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
63-79 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jameson Taillon
#56 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Daniel Lynch IV
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | 2-6 | 5.68 | 1.37 | 84.0 | 75 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | 4-4 | 3.06 | 1.05 | 61.2 | 46 |
2-6
W-L
4-4
5.68
ERA
Ldr 3.06
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.05
84.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
61.2
75 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
46
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
26%
ROYALS
74%
▲ Edge: +20.10% (KC)
BLUE JAYS
51%
Book Odds: -102
ROYALS
54%
Book Odds: -119
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 10.0
41%
Under 10.0
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
TOR By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
7.8%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5.80
Kansas City
5.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 5.80
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
74% Win Prob
A
Sim
Royals
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u10.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TOR @ KC
1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026
TOR @ KC
4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TOR @ KC
9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026
KC @ TOR
13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026
KC @ TOR
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.26
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.718
152
Home Runs
▲
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+55.0% more
Kansas City: 1.4
vs
Toronto: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+22.5% more
Kansas City: 17.0
vs
Toronto: 13.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.5% more
Kansas City: 7.8
vs
Toronto: 6.5
Home Runs (Season)
+11.8% more
Kansas City: 170.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.5
9
KC Score
5.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 9.4
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 6.5
3.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 13.9
13.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.6
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -107
→
-102 / -119
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
10
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
KC
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TOR
KC
TOR
ML
55%
89-72
46%
74-87
56%
90-70
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
91-70
56%
90-71
58%
93-67
49%
79-81
TTL
58%
90-64-7
51%
80-76-5
54%
83-70-7
45%
70-85-5
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