TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
84-57 | Road
7
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
70-72 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Williams
#51 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | 13-4 | 2.99 | 1.10 | 153.2 | 91 |
| Trevor Williams | 0-0 | 3.93 | 1.42 | 18.1 | 23 |
13-4
W-L
0-0
2.99 Ldr
ERA
3.93
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.42
153.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
18.1
91 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
23
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
62%
RANGERS
38%
▲ Edge: +12.20% (TB)
RAYS
50%
Book Odds: +102
RANGERS
55%
Book Odds: -123
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
Over 8.5
49%
Under 8.5
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.5%
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5
Texas
3.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 5
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
62% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rangers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026
TB @ TEX
6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026
TB @ TEX
7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026
TB @ TEX
0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026
TEX @ TB
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.713
169
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+31.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Texas: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Texas: 4.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.6%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Texas: 24.2%
OPS (Season)
+1.5%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.0
7
TEX Score
3.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 7.1
7.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.0
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 10.2
13.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.2 / 2.8
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104
→
+102 / -123
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TB
TEX
TB
ML
53%
86-76
58%
95-68
57%
91-70
58%
95-68
ATS
57%
92-70
60%
97-66
61%
98-63
55%
90-73
TTL
53%
78-70-14
47%
73-81-9
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-75-10
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