SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTSSF
58-84 | Road
6
NEW YORK
METSNYM
64-77 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Wilkinson
#71 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Wilkinson | 0-2 | 4.63 | 1.11 | 11.2 | 6 |
| Nolan McLean | 10-8 | 3.06 | 1.12 | 155.2 | 172 |
0-2
W-L
10-8
4.63
ERA
Ldr 3.06
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.12
11.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 155.2
6
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 172
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
49%
METS
51%
▲ Edge: +11.70% (SF)
GIANTS
37%
Book Odds: +168
METS
67%
Book Odds: -205
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Francisco)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)
SF By 1-2 runs
15.3%
SF By 3-4 runs
9.5%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Francisco
3.8
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
New York
5.2
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
San Francisco
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3
New York
6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Giants (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
B
Sim
Mets (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
SF @ NYM
2 - 4
Sep 5, 2026
SF @ NYM
9 - 5
Sep 4, 2026
SF @ NYM
6 - 10
Apr 5, 2026
NYM @ SF
5 - 2
Apr 4, 2026
NYM @ SF
9 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco
SF
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.706
▲
OPS
.705
178
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+28.6% more
New York: 8.9
vs
San Francisco: 6.9
Total Bases (L5)
+24.8% more
New York: 14.1
vs
San Francisco: 11.3
Home Runs (Season)
+14.6% more
New York: 204.0
vs
San Francisco: 178.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.4% more
New York: 4.3
vs
San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SF Score
3.8
6
NYM Score
5.2
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 6.9
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
5.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.0
11.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 11.3
24.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.2 / 5.1
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -168
→
+168 / -205
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0
(40.1%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
SF
NYM
SF
ML
50%
79-80
49%
79-81
48%
76-83
53%
85-75
ATS
58%
93-66
62%
100-60
49%
78-81
52%
83-77
TTL
55%
80-66-13
55%
82-68-10
51%
74-72-13
46%
68-81-11
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …