Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Orioles BOS @ BAL

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

77-65  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

69-73  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Ranger Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Ranger Suarez

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shane Baz
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Baz

#34 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ranger Suarez 5-4 3.64 1.24 123.2 119
Shane Baz 5-14 4.01 1.35 157.0 139
5-4 W-L 5-14
3.64 Ldr ERA 4.01
1.24 Ldr WHIP 1.35
123.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 157.0
119 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 139
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
51%
📊
ORIOLES
49%
RED SOX 54% Book Odds: -118
ORIOLES 51% Book Odds: -102
Book Implied: 54.10% / 50.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Baltimore)
Red SoxBOS (-1.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+1.5)
Baltimore Orioles (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

36.3%

Orioles Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

17.2%

BAL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
3.8
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
3
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
51% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim Red Sox (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 6
Jun 4, 2026 BAL @ BOS 8 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Baltimore BAL
142
Games Played
142
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.51
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.235
.323 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.407 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.729 ▲
OPS
.711
148
Home Runs
▲ 172
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +31.2% more
Boston: 2.2 vs Baltimore: 1.5
Total Bases (L5) +30.2% more
Boston: 18.4 vs Baltimore: 12.9
Walks (L5) +28.7% more
Boston: 3.6 vs Baltimore: 2.5
Hits (L5) +19.3% more
Boston: 9.3 vs Baltimore: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.2 1
BAL Score 3.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 9.3 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.9 / 7.8 11.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 18.4 6.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.5 / 3.6 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -118 / -102 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
59%TICKETS41%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8 ↓
92%TICKETS8%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
77-65-0 (54.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
BAL
69-73-0 (48.6%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(47.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
(51.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
68-70-4
O: 49.3% / U: 50.7% Total +/-: +0.2
BAL
70-68-4
O: 50.7% / U: 49.3% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53% 74-65
47% 66-73
57% 81-60
48% 67-74
ATS
62% 85-53-1
55% 77-62
56% 79-62
43% 61-80
TTL
53% 71-63-5
49% 66-68-5
86% 119-20-2
86% 121-20
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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