MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
88-54 | Road
10
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
67-74 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Drohan
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Drohan | 7-5 | 3.75 | 1.30 | 110.1 | 110 |
| Rhett Lowder | 6-8 | 5.14 | 1.46 | 112.0 | 88 |
7-5
W-L
6-8
3.75 Ldr
ERA
5.14
1.30 Ldr
WHIP
1.46
110.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 112.0
110 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
88
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
60%
REDS
40%
BREWERS
61%
Book Odds: -157
REDS
44%
Book Odds: +130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 9.5
42%
Under 9.5
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.50
Cincinnati
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.50
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim
Reds
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
CIN @ MIL
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
CIN @ MIL
9 - 13
Sep 11, 2026
CIN @ MIL
0 - 20
Sep 6, 2026
MIL @ CIN
8 - 12
Sep 5, 2026
MIL @ CIN
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.743
▲
OPS
.699
154
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+20.0% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+4.4%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.6%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Batting Avg (Season)
+2.9%
Milwaukee: 25.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
5.0
10
CIN Score
3.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.4
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 8.0
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 14.4
15.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.1
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -117 / -103
→
-157 / +130
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIL
CIN
MIL
ML
55%
88-71
62%
101-61
49%
79-81
52%
84-78
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
94-68
50%
80-80
48%
78-84
TTL
53%
81-73-5
40%
62-92-8
54%
83-72-5
50%
77-77-8
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