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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

88-54  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 6:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

67-74  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Shane Drohan

#55 | Starting Pitcher
@
Rhett Lowder
STARTING PITCHER

Rhett Lowder

#25 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shane Drohan 7-5 3.75 1.30 110.1 110
Rhett Lowder 6-8 5.14 1.46 112.0 88
7-5 W-L 6-8
3.75 Ldr ERA 5.14
1.30 Ldr WHIP 1.46
110.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 112.0
110 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 88
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
60%
📊
REDS
40%
BREWERS 61% Book Odds: -157
REDS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 61.10% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 9.5 42%
Under 9.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
BrewersMIL (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

35.4%

Reds Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.50
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 5.50
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Win
60% Win Prob
B
Sim Reds Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 MIL @ CIN 3 - 5
Sep 4, 2026 MIL @ CIN 10 - 7
Jul 2, 2026 CIN @ MIL 7 - 2
Jul 1, 2026 CIN @ MIL 2 - 4
Jun 30, 2026 CIN @ MIL 2 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
143 ▲
Games Played
142
5.02 ▲
Runs / Game
4.18
.256 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.339 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.308
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.398
.738 ▲
OPS
.706
132
Home Runs
▲ 191
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +16.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.0 vs Cincinnati: 4.2
OPS (Season) +3.2%
Milwaukee: 73.8% vs Cincinnati: 70.6%
On-Base Pct (Season) +3.1%
Milwaukee: 33.9% vs Cincinnati: 30.8%
Batting Avg (Season) +2.7%
Milwaukee: 25.6% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 5.0 10
CIN Score 3.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 9.4 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.0 11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 14.4 15.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.1 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -117 / -103 → -157 / +130 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
82%TICKETS18%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9.5 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
88-55-0 (61.5%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
68-74-0 (47.9%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.7%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
63-76-4
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
75-65-2
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIL
CIN
MIL
ML
53% 74-65
60% 84-55
49% 68-72
50% 70-69
ATS
55% 76-63
58% 81-58
49% 69-71
48% 67-72
TTL
54% 74-62-3
41% 54-79-6
83% 115-24-1
85% 117-20-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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