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NORTH CAROLINA A&T

NC A&TNCAT

0-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-0  |  Home

59
Key Game
DJ Page
KEY GAME

DJ Page

#46 | Place kicker
@
Samer Layous
KEY GAME

Samer Layous

#39 | Place kicker
Player
DJ Page None-None
Samer Layous None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC A&T
16%
📊
GEORGIA ST
84%
NC A&T --
GEORGIA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 24%
Under 0 76%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+17.6
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Book Spread
--
Book Line
NC A&TNCAT (-3.5) 0 Georgia StGAST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC A&T Cover

89.6%

Georgia St Cover

10.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCAT +17.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCAT)

NCAT By 1-6 points

5.5%

NCAT By 7-13 points

2.9%

GAST By 1-6 points

10.3%

GAST By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
14.2
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
31.8
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
19
NORTH CAROLINA A&T
30
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Georgia St Win
84% Win Prob
C
Sim Georgia St Win
86% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI NC A&T (+28.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +17.6
A
Sim NC A&T (+28.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Sim u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 NCAT @ GAST 10 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +51.1% more
Georgia State: 390.0 vs North Carolina A&T: 258.1
First Downs (L5) +26.3% more
Georgia State: 20.2 vs North Carolina A&T: 16.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.2% more
North Carolina A&T: 168.7 vs Georgia State: 141.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCAT Score 14.2 10
GAST Score 31.8 59
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 16.0 28.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 141.3 / 168.7 284.0 / 84.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.58 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 390.0 / 258.1 563.0 / 209.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1600 / -4500 → +1600 / -4500
8%TICKETS92%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +26.5 / -26.5 → +26.5 / -26.5
93%TICKETS7%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54.5 → 54.5
16%TICKETS84%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCAT
--
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCAT
--
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NCAT
--
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
NCAT
GAST
NCAT
ML
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
0% 0-5
0% 0-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-2
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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