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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

83-57  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

70-71  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Shane McClanahan
STARTING PITCHER

Shane McClanahan

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shane McClanahan 10-6 3.19 1.11 113.0 103
Cal Quantrill 6-5 3.01 1.10 89.2 68
10-6 W-L 6-5
3.19 ERA Ldr 3.01
1.11 WHIP Ldr 1.10
113.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 89.2
103 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 68
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
48%
📊
RANGERS
52%
▲ Edge: +3.20% (TEX)
RAYS 56% Book Odds: -125
RANGERS 49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 55.60% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Texas)
RaysTB (-1.5) 0 RangersTEX (+1.5)
Texas Rangers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

36.3%

Rangers Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TB By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
5.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
3
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
61% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 TB @ TEX 6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TB @ TEX 7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026 TB @ TEX 0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026 TEX @ TB 2 - 3
Jul 29, 2026 TEX @ TB 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Texas TEX
141
Games Played
▲ 142
4.50 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.260 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.243
.328 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.399
.731 ▲
OPS
.716
146
Home Runs
▲ 160
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +32.0% more
Texas: 1.3 vs Tampa Bay: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +17.1% more
Texas: 9.3 vs Tampa Bay: 8.0
Home Runs (Season) +9.6% more
Texas: 160.0 vs Tampa Bay: 146.0
Total Bases (L5) +9.4% more
Texas: 15.1 vs Tampa Bay: 13.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.8 0
TEX Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 9.1 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.0 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 13.8 15.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.7 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104 → -125 / +104
75%TICKETS25%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
72%TICKETS28%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
86%TICKETS14%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
85-57-0 (59.9%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TEX
70-73-0 (48.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(54.2%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
TEX
(46.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
66-71-5
O: 48.2% / U: 51.8% Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
71-64-8
O: 52.6% / U: 47.4% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TB
TEX
TB
ML
52% 75-68
57% 81-60
58% 82-60
61% 86-55
ATS
57% 81-62
62% 88-53
56% 79-63
63% 89-52
TTL
51% 67-65-11
48% 64-69-8
86% 119-20-3
85% 118-21-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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