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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

83-57  |  Road

0
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

70-71  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Shane McClanahan
STARTING PITCHER

Shane McClanahan

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Cal Quantrill
STARTING PITCHER

Cal Quantrill

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shane McClanahan 10-6 3.19 1.11 113.0 103
Cal Quantrill 6-5 3.01 1.10 89.2 68
10-6 W-L 6-5
3.19 ERA Ldr 3.01
1.11 WHIP Ldr 1.10
113.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 89.2
103 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 68
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
48%
📊
RANGERS
52%
▲ Edge: +3.20% (TEX)
RAYS 56% Book Odds: -125
RANGERS 49% Book Odds: +104
Book Implied: 55.60% / 49%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 60%
Under 8.0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Texas)
RaysTB (-1.5) 0 RangersTEX (+1.5)
Texas Rangers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

36.3%

Rangers Cover

63.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TB By 1-2 runs

15.3%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
5.2
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
3
TEXAS
Book Implied: 3.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
61% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TB @ TEX 6 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 TB @ TEX 6 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TB @ TEX 7 - 6
Sep 3, 2026 TB @ TEX 0 - 6
Jul 30, 2026 TEX @ TB 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728 ▲
OPS
.713
169
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +32.0% more
Texas: 1.3 vs Tampa Bay: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +17.1% more
Texas: 9.3 vs Tampa Bay: 8.0
Total Bases (L5) +9.4% more
Texas: 15.1 vs Tampa Bay: 13.8
Home Runs (Season) +8.3% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.8 0
TEX Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 9.1 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 8.0 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 13.8 15.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.7 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -126 / +104 → -125 / +104
75%TICKETS25%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
72%TICKETS28%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
86%TICKETS14%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TB
TEX
TB
ML
53% 86-76
58% 95-68
57% 91-70
58% 95-68
ATS
57% 92-70
60% 97-66
61% 98-63
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 78-70-14
47% 73-81-9
55% 81-66-14
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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