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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

73-67  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Sep 3 • 2:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

72-69  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Luis Castillo
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Castillo

#58 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hunter Brown
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Brown

#58 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Castillo 4-10 5.31 1.44 122.0 106
Hunter Brown 4-3 3.33 1.30 81.0 86
4-10 W-L 4-3
5.31 ERA Ldr 3.33
1.44 WHIP Ldr 1.30
122.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 81.0
106 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 86
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
35%
📊
ASTROS
65%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (HOU)
WHITE SOX 43% Book Odds: +131
ASTROS 61% Book Odds: -159
Book Implied: 43.30% / 61.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 55%
Under 8.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Chicago White Sox (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

63.7%

Astros Cover

36.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CHW By 3-4 runs

9.5%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.7%

HOU By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Astros Win
65% Win Prob
A
Sim White Sox Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim White Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 CHW @ HOU 7 - 3
Sep 29, 2026 CHW @ HOU 6 - 3
Sep 3, 2026 CHW @ HOU 2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026 CHW @ HOU 0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 CHW @ HOU 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Houston HOU
1
Games Played
▲ 2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.826 ▲
OPS
.582
1
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +60.0% more
Houston: 0.8 vs Chicago: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +39.0% more
Houston: 0.8 vs Chicago: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +14.7% more
Houston: 10.2 vs Chicago: 8.9
Hits (L5) +11.1% more
Houston: 6.3 vs Chicago: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.8 2
HOU Score 5.2 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 5.7 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 7.8 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.2 / 8.9 16.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.0 / 5.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +117 / -141 → +131 / -159 ↑
28%TICKETS72%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
25%TICKETS75%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
79%TICKETS21%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHW
HOU
CHW
ML
50% 81-82
49% 81-86
47% 77-87
56% 94-73
ATS
56% 91-72
59% 99-68
55% 90-74
56% 93-74
TTL
45% 70-84-9
58% 96-69-2
45% 69-86-9
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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