CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
73-67 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
72-69 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Castillo
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 4-10 | 5.31 | 1.44 | 122.0 | 106 |
| Hunter Brown | 4-3 | 3.33 | 1.30 | 81.0 | 86 |
4-10
W-L
4-3
5.31
ERA
Ldr 3.33
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 1.30
122.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
81.0
106 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
86
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
35%
ASTROS
65%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (HOU)
WHITE SOX
43%
Book Odds: +131
ASTROS
61%
Book Odds: -159
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
55%
Under 8.5
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
3.8
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Houston
5.2
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
65% Win Prob
A
Sim
White Sox
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
C
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
CHW @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026
CHW @ HOU
0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
CHW @ HOU
5 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
CHW @ HOU
3 - 6
Jul 26, 2026
HOU @ CHW
3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Houston
HOU
141
Games Played
▲
142
4.72
▲
Runs / Game
4.52
.236
Avg (AVG)
▲
.240
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.315
.405
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.408
.724
▲
OPS
.723
184
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+60.0% more
Houston: 0.8
vs
Chicago: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+39.0% more
Houston: 0.8
vs
Chicago: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+14.7% more
Houston: 10.2
vs
Chicago: 8.9
Hits (L5)
+11.1% more
Houston: 6.3
vs
Chicago: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
3.8
2
HOU Score
5.2
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 5.7
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 7.8
10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
10.2 / 8.9
16.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.0 / 5.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +117 / -141
→
+131 / -159
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
74-67-0
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
73-69-0
(51.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.9%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
(50.7%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
78-61-2
O: 56.1% / U: 43.9%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
71-63-8
O: 53.0% / U: 47.0%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHW
HOU
CHW
ML
49%
69-72
50%
71-70
48%
68-74
59%
83-58
ATS
57%
81-60
60%
84-57
50%
71-71
57%
80-61
TTL
45%
60-74-7
57%
79-60-2
85%
118-21-3
86%
121-20
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