TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
70-71 | Road
6
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
70-70 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Soriano
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Soriano | 11-7 | 3.45 | 1.28 | 151.1 | 149 |
| Tanner Bibee | 5-14 | 3.88 | 1.16 | 162.1 | 128 |
11-7
W-L
5-14
3.45 Ldr
ERA
3.88
1.28
WHIP
Ldr 1.16
151.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 162.1
149 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
128
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
40%
GUARDIANS
60%
▲ Edge: +7.90% (CLE)
BLUE JAYS
52%
Book Odds: -108
GUARDIANS
53%
Book Odds: -111
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 7.5
65%
Under 7.5
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.5%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Cleveland
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Toronto
2
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians
Loss
60% Win Prob
B
Sim
Guardians
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
6 - 3
Sep 2, 2026
TOR @ CLE
11 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
TOR @ CLE
1 - 6
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
CLE @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.692
OPS
▲
.696
152
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+36.1% more
Cleveland: 9.2
vs
Toronto: 6.8
Errors (L5)
+36.0% more
Cleveland: 0.8
vs
Toronto: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+6.6% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+4.8% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.8
6
CLE Score
5.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.5
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 6.8
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 15.3
9.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.5 / 3.0
9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -137 / +114
→
-108 / -111
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
7.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
54%
87-75
46%
74-87
49%
80-83
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
93-69
56%
90-71
58%
95-68
49%
79-81
TTL
56%
89-71-2
51%
80-76-5
44%
70-90-2
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox