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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

73-66  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Sep 2 • 8:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

71-69  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Davis Martin
STARTING PITCHER

Davis Martin

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hayden Wesneski
STARTING PITCHER

Hayden Wesneski

#39 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Davis Martin 9-6 4.32 1.33 125.0 111
Hayden Wesneski 4-1 3.86 1.19 32.2 28
9-6 W-L 4-1
4.32 ERA Ldr 3.86
1.33 WHIP Ldr 1.19
125.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 32.2
111 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 28
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
19%
📊
ASTROS
81%
▲ Edge: +23.90% (HOU)
WHITE SOX 45% Book Odds: +122
ASTROS 57% Book Odds: -132
Book Implied: 45% / 56.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5 56%
Under 8.5 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Houston)
White SoxCHW (+1.5) 0 AstrosHOU (-1.5)
Houston Astros (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

30.9%

Astros Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

CHW By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

7.8%

HOU By 1-2 runs

19.6%

HOU By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Astros Win
81% Win Prob
A
Sim Astros Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 CHW @ HOU 7 - 3
Sep 29, 2026 CHW @ HOU 6 - 3
Sep 3, 2026 CHW @ HOU 2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026 CHW @ HOU 0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026 CHW @ HOU 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Houston HOU
1
Games Played
▲ 2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.826 ▲
OPS
.582
1
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
Houston: 1.2 vs Chicago: 0.6
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
Houston: 0.6 vs Chicago: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Houston: 3.0
Walks (L5) +30.0% more
Chicago: 6.4 vs Houston: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.5 0
HOU Score 5.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.0 / 7.0 7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 8.6 5.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.2 / 10.8 8.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.5 / 6.4 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -120 / +100 → +122 / -132 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
32%TICKETS68%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
75%TICKETS25%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-80-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(57.7%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
97-69-2
O: 58.4% / U: 41.6% Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CHW
HOU
CHW
ML
50% 81-82
48% 81-87
47% 77-87
56% 94-74
ATS
56% 91-72
59% 99-69
55% 90-74
55% 93-75
TTL
45% 70-84-9
58% 97-69-2
45% 69-86-9
51% 85-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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