TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
69-71 | Road
11
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
70-69 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Cease
#84 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Joey Cantillo
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | 9-5 | 2.33 | 1.05 | 150.1 | 217 |
| Joey Cantillo | 9-7 | 3.70 | 1.45 | 136.1 | 145 |
9-5
W-L
9-7
2.33 Ldr
ERA
3.70
1.05 Ldr
WHIP
1.45
150.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
136.1
217 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
145
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
49%
GUARDIANS
51%
▲ Edge: +3.70% (CLE)
BLUE JAYS
55%
Book Odds: -122
GUARDIANS
47%
Book Odds: +112
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
60%
Under 7.5
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.2%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.5
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
A
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 3, 2026
TOR @ CLE
6 - 3
Sep 2, 2026
TOR @ CLE
11 - 0
Sep 1, 2026
TOR @ CLE
1 - 6
Apr 26, 2026
CLE @ TOR
2 - 4
Apr 25, 2026
CLE @ TOR
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.692
OPS
▲
.696
152
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+77.0% more
Cleveland: 1.7
vs
Toronto: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7
vs
Toronto: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+51.3% more
Cleveland: 9.3
vs
Toronto: 6.1
Total Bases (L5)
+47.1% more
Cleveland: 16.1
vs
Toronto: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.5
11
CLE Score
5.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.1 / 6.8
6.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 6.1
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 10.9
7.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.3 / 3.5
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +153 / -186
→
-122 / +112
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
↓
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TOR
CLE
TOR
ML
54%
87-74
46%
74-87
49%
80-82
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
90-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
TTL
55%
88-71-2
51%
80-76-5
43%
69-90-2
45%
70-85-5
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