Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Rays NYM @ TB

NEW YORK

METSNYM

63-77  |  Road

10
FINAL
Wed, Sep 2 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

83-56  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Justin Hagenman
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Hagenman

#47 | Relief Pitcher
@
Shane McClanahan
STARTING PITCHER

Shane McClanahan

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Justin Hagenman 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
Shane McClanahan 10-6 3.19 1.11 113.0 103
0-0 W-L 10-6
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.19
0.00 Ldr WHIP 1.11
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 113.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 103
AI Model Win Probability
METS
42%
📊
RAYS
58%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (NYM)
METS 39% Book Odds: +158
RAYS 63% Book Odds: -173
Book Implied: 38.80% / 63.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.0 56%
Under 8.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
MetsNYM (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

64.6%

Rays Cover

35.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

15.0%

NYM By 3-4 runs

9.2%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.20
5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Rays Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Rays (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 NYM @ TB 10 - 4
Sep 1, 2026 NYM @ TB 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2026 NYM @ TB 3 - 2
Jun 15, 2025 TB @ NYM 9 - 0
Jun 14, 2025 TB @ NYM 8 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.705
OPS
▲ .728
204 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +148.8% more
Tampa Bay: 3.1 vs New York: 1.2
Hits (L5) +60.1% more
Tampa Bay: 10.2 vs New York: 6.3
Total Bases (L5) +42.7% more
Tampa Bay: 15.2 vs New York: 10.6
Runs per Game (Season) +5.3% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 3.5 10
TB Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.2 / 6.3 7.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.0 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 10.6 11.0 / 21.0
Walks 3.1 / 1.2 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -132 → +158 / -173 ↑
15%TICKETS85%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
11%TICKETS89%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
87%TICKETS13%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
NYM
TB
NYM
ML
58% 95-68
50% 79-80
58% 95-68
48% 76-83
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 93-66
55% 90-73
49% 78-81
TTL
47% 73-81-9
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-75-10
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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