PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
79-61 | Road
0
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
74-67 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Clarke
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter | 3-8 | 5.95 | 1.44 | 98.1 | 85 |
| Taylor Clarke | 2-3 | 2.60 | 0.88 | 62.1 | 37 |
3-8
W-L
2-3
5.95
ERA
Ldr 2.60
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 0.88
98.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
62.1
85 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
37
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
13%
DIAMONDBACKS
87%
▲ Edge: +39.70% (ARI)
PHILLIES
57%
Book Odds: -135
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
Book Odds: +112
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0
49%
Under 9.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
5.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
87% Win Prob
A
Sim
Phillies
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
PHI @ ARI
0 - 1
Sep 1, 2026
PHI @ ARI
7 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
PHI @ ARI
2 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
ARI @ PHI
4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
ARI @ PHI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+5433.3% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5)
+45.1% more
Arizona: 3.8
vs
Philadelphia: 2.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+30.3% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+24.0% more
Arizona: 0.4
vs
Philadelphia: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.5
0
ARI Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 9.7
3.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 8.3
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 13.4
6.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.6
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +118
→
-135 / +112
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PHI
ARI
PHI
ML
54%
87-74
59%
97-67
54%
86-74
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
91-70
65%
107-57
56%
89-71
51%
83-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
57%
88-67-9
49%
73-77-9
51%
78-76-9
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