PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
79-61 | Road
0
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
74-67 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Clarke
#45 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Painter | 3-8 | 5.95 | 1.44 | 98.1 | 85 |
| Taylor Clarke | 2-3 | 2.60 | 0.88 | 62.1 | 37 |
3-8
W-L
2-3
5.95
ERA
Ldr 2.60
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 0.88
98.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
62.1
85 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
37
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
13%
DIAMONDBACKS
87%
▲ Edge: +39.70% (ARI)
PHILLIES
57%
Book Odds: -135
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
Book Odds: +112
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0
49%
Under 9.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
ARI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
3.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
5.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Diamondbacks
Win
87% Win Prob
A
Sim
Phillies
Loss
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
PHI @ ARI
0 - 1
Sep 1, 2026
PHI @ ARI
7 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
PHI @ ARI
2 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
ARI @ PHI
4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
ARI @ PHI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Arizona
ARI
141
Games Played
▲
142
4.49
▲
Runs / Game
4.43
.242
Avg (AVG)
.242
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.712
▲
OPS
.709
166
▲
Home Runs
139
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+50.8% more
Arizona: 4.0
vs
Philadelphia: 2.6
Errors (L5)
+39.0% more
Arizona: 0.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.8% more
Philadelphia: 8.3
vs
Arizona: 6.0
Hits (L5)
+24.2% more
Philadelphia: 9.7
vs
Arizona: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
3.5
0
ARI Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.7
3.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 8.3
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 13.4
6.0 / 4.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.6
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +118
→
-135 / +112
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
79-62-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
74-68-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.1%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(54.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
63-69-9
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3%
Total +/-: +0.3
ARI
61-75-6
O: 44.9% / U: 55.2%
Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PHI
ARI
PHI
ML
52%
74-67
59%
82-58
54%
76-64
51%
71-69
ATS
58%
82-59
65%
91-49
53%
74-66
47%
66-74
TTL
48%
65-70-6
57%
75-57-8
87%
122-18
86%
117-19-4
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