SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
73-67 | Road
3
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
67-73 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Casey Mize
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Williamson
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize | 5-8 | 3.45 | 1.10 | 109.2 | 96 |
| Brandon Williamson | 2-3 | 6.11 | 1.64 | 28.0 | 19 |
5-8
W-L
2-3
3.45 Ldr
ERA
6.11
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.64
109.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
28.0
96 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
19
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
76%
REDS
24%
▲ Edge: +14.50% (SD)
PADRES
61%
Book Odds: -157
REDS
44%
Book Odds: +130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 9.5
41%
Under 9.5
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.5%
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.0%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.2%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Cincinnati
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.50
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Padres
Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim
Reds
Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026
SD @ CIN
3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026
SD @ CIN
5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026
CIN @ SD
4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026
CIN @ SD
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.925
▲
OPS
.699
4
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.5% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+22.6%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.9%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+9.9%
San Diego: 32.8%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.0
3
CIN Score
3.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.7
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 9.2
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 14.1
20.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.2
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113
→
-157 / +130
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SD
CIN
SD
ML
55%
88-71
51%
85-83
49%
79-81
51%
85-82
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
91-77
50%
80-80
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
81-73-5
51%
82-80-6
54%
83-72-5
54%
86-74-6
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