Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Reds SD @ CIN

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

73-67  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Sep 2 • 12:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

67-73  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Casey Mize
STARTING PITCHER

Casey Mize

#32 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brandon Williamson
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Williamson

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Casey Mize 5-8 3.45 1.10 109.2 96
Brandon Williamson 2-3 6.11 1.64 28.0 19
5-8 W-L 2-3
3.45 Ldr ERA 6.11
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.64
109.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 28.0
96 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 19
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
76%
📊
REDS
24%
▲ Edge: +14.50% (SD)
PADRES 61% Book Odds: -157
REDS 44% Book Odds: +130
Book Implied: 61.10% / 43.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.0 (Under)
Over 9.5 41%
Under 9.5 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
PadresSD (-1.5) 0 RedsCIN (+1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

35.4%

Reds Cover

64.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

17.5%

CIN By 1-2 runs

15.0%

CIN By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.50
3.5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
Book Implied: 5.50
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres Loss
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Reds Win
69% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
C
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 SD @ CIN 3 - 7
Sep 1, 2026 SD @ CIN 3 - 4
Aug 31, 2026 SD @ CIN 5 - 0
Jun 10, 2026 CIN @ SD 4 - 5
Jun 9, 2026 CIN @ SD 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Cincinnati CIN
141
Games Played
141
4.23 ▲
Runs / Game
4.17
.237 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.308
.386
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.700
OPS
▲ .704
154
Home Runs
▲ 188
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +1.4% more
San Diego: 4.2 vs Cincinnati: 4.2
Batting Avg (Season) +0.8%
San Diego: 23.7% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.6%
San Diego: 31.4% vs Cincinnati: 30.8%
Errors (L5) +68.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.0 vs San Diego: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 5.0 3
CIN Score 3.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 8.7 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 9.2 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 14.1 20.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.2 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113 → -157 / +130 ↓
81%TICKETS19%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
84%TICKETS16%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9.5
82%TICKETS18%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
74-67-0 (52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
67-74-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(56.7%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.3%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
62-76-3
O: 44.9% / U: 55.1% Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
75-64-2
O: 54.0% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
SD
CIN
SD
ML
53% 73-65
49% 69-72
49% 68-71
49% 69-71
ATS
54% 75-63
55% 78-63
50% 69-70
51% 71-69
TTL
54% 73-62-3
48% 66-72-3
83% 115-23-1
86% 119-19-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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