PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
79-60 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
73-67 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | 12-5 | 3.09 | 1.12 | 163.0 | 203 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 14-4 | 2.50 | 1.19 | 162.0 | 119 |
12-5
W-L
14-4
3.09
ERA
Ldr 2.50
1.12 Ldr
WHIP
1.19
163.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
162.0
203 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
119
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
52%
DIAMONDBACKS
48%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (ARI)
PHILLIES
58%
Book Odds: -137
DIAMONDBACKS
47%
Book Odds: +114
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
57%
Under 7.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.9%
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 4.50
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
PHI @ ARI
0 - 1
Sep 1, 2026
PHI @ ARI
7 - 1
Aug 31, 2026
PHI @ ARI
2 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
ARI @ PHI
4 - 3
Apr 11, 2026
ARI @ PHI
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.724
▲
OPS
.720
3
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.5% more
Philadelphia: 8.5
vs
Arizona: 6.2
Home Runs (L5)
+14.7% more
Philadelphia: 1.1
vs
Arizona: 0.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.6%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Home Runs (Season)
+5433.3% more
Arizona: 166.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.1
7
ARI Score
4.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.1
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.1
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 8.5
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 12.7
9.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.5
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -125 / +104
→
-137 / +114
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
PHI
ARI
PHI
ML
54%
87-74
59%
97-67
54%
86-74
49%
80-84
ATS
57%
91-70
65%
107-57
56%
89-71
51%
83-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
57%
88-67-9
49%
73-77-9
51%
78-76-9
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