Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Angels NYY @ LAA

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

79-60  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Sep 1 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

53-86  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Gerrit Cole
STARTING PITCHER

Gerrit Cole

#45 | SP
@
Grayson Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Grayson Rodriguez

#21 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gerrit Cole 7-7 3.19 1.07 98.2 105
Grayson Rodriguez 4-5 6.03 1.52 71.2 65
7-7 W-L 4-5
3.19 Ldr ERA 6.03
1.07 Ldr WHIP 1.52
98.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 71.2
105 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 65
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
68%
📊
ANGELS
32%
▲ Edge: +2.30% (NYY)
YANKEES 65% Book Odds: -187
ANGELS 40% Book Odds: +153
Book Implied: 65.20% / 39.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 (Over)
Over 7.0 54%
Under 7.0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-1.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+1.5)
New York Yankees (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

70.0%

Angels Cover

30.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.5%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.6%

LAA By 1-2 runs

13.3%

LAA By 3-4 runs

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
2.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.80
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.20
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 2.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Yankees Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim Yankees Win
70% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 2, 2026 NYY @ LAA 6 - 3
Sep 1, 2026 NYY @ LAA 7 - 3
Aug 31, 2026 NYY @ LAA 1 - 10
Apr 16, 2026 LAA @ NYY 11 - 4
Apr 15, 2026 LAA @ NYY 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Los Angeles LAA
141
Games Played
141
4.52 ▲
Runs / Game
4.05
.233
Avg (AVG)
.233
.311 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.308
.408 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.719 ▲
OPS
.677
193 ▲
Home Runs
135
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +91.4% more
New York: 1.4 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +82.5% more
New York: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +30.1% more
New York: 193.0 vs Los Angeles: 135.0
Total Bases (L5) +29.7% more
New York: 15.7 vs Los Angeles: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.0 7
LAA Score 2.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 9.9 9.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 9.1 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 15.7 12.0 / 21.0
Walks 4.7 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -143 / +119 → -187 / +153 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
85%TICKETS15%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 7 ↓
88%TICKETS12%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
80-61-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
LAA
53-88-0 (37.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(48.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(49.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
61-76-4
O: 44.5% / U: 55.5% Total +/-: +0.1
LAA
58-81-2
O: 41.7% / U: 58.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
NYY
LAA
NYY
ML
59% 83-58
44% 61-77
54% 76-65
50% 69-69
ATS
59% 83-58
58% 80-58
52% 74-67
49% 68-70
TTL
54% 74-63-4
48% 64-69-5
86% 119-20-2
86% 119-19
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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